Understanding the Value on Football Index

In this part of the guide, we are going to use numerous different examples of current player prices on Football Index and explain why they are considered to be worth that price. As previously explained, the market prices are determined by demand, and it is not uncommon for people to have differing opinions and ideas. This section should not therefore persuade or dissuade you from purchasing a certain player.

Neymar

Starting at the top, the man that propped up the platform for most of the 17/18 season, Neymar. While you’d probably expect him, Ronaldo and Messi all to be up there, sometimes Football Index and the real world can act as polar opposites, so it is good to understand the reasoning for his position.

All players this high in price need some real dividend potential to hold that price and Neymar certainly has that:

Media:

  • Single-named players often get picked up more frequently in articles as there is no abbreviated version, for example, Messi may miss out on some articles being credited to him as the headline may just refer to him as “Messi” or “Leo Messi”.
  • Not only is he one of the biggest names in football, but he also has continuing media stories about diving and a potential move to Real Madrid which can generate a lot of dividends, especially on quiet or media days.

Performance:

  • Playing in Ligue 1 is the dream for Neymar holders because the quality is so poor. In the 17/18 season, he came up with £0.69 in performance dividends even though his season was cut three months short with injury. He also averaged a score of 166, higher than any other player and he is still the holder of the highest ever performance buzz score of 365, making him arguably the best of the best in terms of performance dividend potential.

Paul Pogba

When you think of the talents of Neymar, Messi and Ronaldo, it is unlikely that Paul Pogba is the fourth name to jump into your head, yet, he has already spent time as the most expensive player on Football Index this season, and there is a good reason for it. While his performances remain questionable, off the pitch he is doing what he does best, making the news.

England-based players often have the advantage when it comes to the media buzz because the majority of the sources used are solely UK-based media outlets and Manchester United players especially get a good deal because the word “united” is one of the algorithm buzz words, adding an extra 20 points to all articles it is mentioned in. So, when you take that and add it to the character that is Paul Pogba, you get an incredibly high chance of media coverage.

In recent times, Pogba’s feud with Jose and his agent’s antics involving a transfer away from Old Trafford made him the highest returning player in the summer window of 2018 (August and September combined). He returned in that period more than double that of the second highest yielding player, Ronaldo, so it is unsurprising to see his price so high. However, it is worth noting that the opposite can happen too, with his price falling somewhat during a barren media spell and when a move away from United becomes more likely a downwards pressure may appear on his price as people fear he’d be over priced at a foreign club since the majority of his value comes from his media dividends. The graph below demonstrates the relationship between the price and the dividends for Paul Pogba.

Sergio Ramos

Ramos is a great example of how changing conditions can drastically change a player’s value. Ramos was approximately £0.80 when the 2018/2019 season began, making him around the fifth-most expensive defender at the time. Then a surge of money into defenders helped increase his share price slightly, but the big influence was finding out that he was going to be taking penalties after Ronaldo’s departure. With Madrid being awarded a penalty on average once every four games over the last five seasons until the end of 2017/18, as well as the introduction of VAR to La expected to increase the number of penalties more, Ramos’s goal count is expected to pick up. This huge goal threat for a defender playing at a big team, with a high win rate and a good chance of a clean sheet hugely gives him the edge in picking up dividends in a category that doesn’t require as high scores as the other categories to return dividends.

He managed to pick up £0.30 in dividends in the first three La Liga games of the season. This dividend potential helped break the ceiling for the defender category and push him to the top at around £2. Since then, however, he failed to win any dividends, Real Madrid’s season fell apart and he was either injured or banned for a lot of the games in which Madrid were awarded penalties resulting in recent lows of £0.80. This shows how performance and sentiment can really change surrounding a player and that you should never ignorantly continue to hold a player who’s not living up to expectations.

N’Golo Kante

The Frenchman is another great example of a player who, in real life, is an incredible talent, but which does not translate to value in dividends in Football Index. This is why it is important to understand the way the platform works. There’s no doubt Kante is brilliant at what he does, winning tackles, keeping the midfield ticking over and covering more ground than any other player. The problem is, these things do not help him to build up very good performance scores because of the scoring matrix that is used. While his “baseline” or average score isn’t too shabby, he very rarely does anything to push his score up enough to take home the dividends.

It is also worth noting that while he has hit the media stoplight more often in recent times since the World Cup, he’s actually outside “the first team” so he can’t win media dividends until the start of the 2019 season.

 

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