Firstly, I’d like to once again say thank you to everyone that took the time to participate and share this questionnaire. In total over 30 hours was spent by just over 250 of you guys on answering my questions and without that this wouldn’t of been possible so thank you. I’d also like to add that the number of answers to each question differs in some parts due to some people not answering all questions and other answers having to be scrubbed because they’re too vague or didn’t really answer the question being asked.
The average trader
Let’s kick off with some statics on the average trader. On average the sample had been on football index for 16 months, with a number of traders being on the platform over three years, however the most common bracket of time on the index was 6-10months, with 42% of participants being on the index for 10 months or less. This is an interesting spread of portfolios and views to be observing and should hopefully mean that most types of traders are covered by this survey.
The average initial deposit stands at £1096 which is very substantial, although 27 (11%) of traders had initial deposits of over £2000, with the maximum being £30000 which definitely drags this number upwards. Still though, it’s a substantial investment to make initially into a platform that is completely new to you. This is potentially an indicator of how trusted the platform now is and a testament to the brand that has been created. It could also be down to the fact that prices are higher than ever (relatively taking into account the share split) and often, putting in £50-£100, for example, just doesn’t produce returns stimulating enough to stick around. Your average investor currently has a net deposits of £9883, with 74 respondents having over £10000 current net deposits and surprisingly, only 18 having negative net deposits. This compares to an average of £7834 in last years survey and you can see below that in general the distribution has shifted upwards this year. It is interesting considering how much money people have probably made over the last year that the majority have decided to keep in their investments, probably to try maximise gains rather than taking their outlay back and playing purely with profits.
These investments have clearly paid off as the average profit of the survey is £14705, that's almost double the £7814 recorded in last years survey and you can see from the breakdown of the response below that 75 (30%) people reported having made over £10000, compared to just 34 (23%) last year.
The average portfolio
People's strategies and ways of trading on Football Index vary so much more than they used to now a days and with that comes very differently shaped portfolios. The number of players in a portfolio is something that definitely varies widely. The average number of players reported was 63, but as you can see below this number varies hugely. The largest number shared was 560 (looks like The Don didn't get round to completing this survey or I'm sure the mean would of been dragged up a couple more players that's for sure)
In terms of the characteristics of these players, the thought process seems to be as you would expect. Own mainly attacking players mainly based in the Premier League. You can see the full results below.
Another area people are differentiated is where they choose to stick the biggest proportion of their capital. You can see below that there were multiple players that traders have as their biggest hold in terms of £. In fact, there were 57 different player, a much wider distribution than previously seen. It makes sense that many of the more popular ones are the most expensive players on the platform because it takes significantly more money to own a substantial number of these shares.
A couple of other observations- firstly, last year, only Kane and Mbappe out of the top 10 most expensive players at the time failed to make the list, yet this year both are very present despite no changes in their situations. This possibly demonstrates the change in trends and sentiment on the platform. Many are looking ahead to the Euro's already and Sterling,Sancho and Kane, among others appear to be staple holds for many. While Mbappe has also becomes much more favourable over the year with people paying less attention to dividend yields and with the sudden realisation he's young and much better than the majority of young players with premium prices. The possible Neymar exit is definitely helping him out too.
This time around Felix and Rashford are the two from the top 10 not present despite both seeing considerable rises recently.
People's biggest holds by number of shares were even more widely distributed, with over 90 different answers but once again the most prevalent answers were very household names on Football Index. There's definitely some interesting ones that came up more than once, as you can see below.
Dividends are a much more debated part of the platform these days with many people, rightly or wrongly, basing their strategy around other attributes, but they're definitely still a vital part of the platform. On average traders have won £2400 in dividends during their time on the platform, or to put it another way, 9.8% of the average portfolio size, however this is slightly skewed by those who have won tens of thousands and the fact 143 traders (64%) have won less than £100 shows many aren't in this for the dividends.
Although, the frequency at which people win dividends does tend to be increasing year on year as shown below, however this time last year in play dividends didn't exist and it's much easier to pick up dividends as a by-product of other strategies these days.
Now onto the real juicy stuff- your opinions. After all this platform is completely opinions based and sentiment ultimately decides the fate of players prices. If we've learnt anything over the last year its that this sentiment can change drastically and we've definitely seen that happen.
According to the respondents, Pogba is the most likely to be top of the Index on the 1st of January 2020 but only just, and as you can see there are plenty more hats in the ring than there were this time last year when 87% correctly said Neymar would be top at the start of this year.
The average price estimated for the king of the Index on 01/01/2020 was £8.62 with the most optimistic estimates coming in at £15. Unless they know something I don't then I don't think that's happening anytime soon. The amount of money needed to be invested to move prices at the top end of the market is huge since the share split but another £1 increase over the next four months certainly isn't out of the question.
Onto your dividend predictions and it's Pogba who comes out on top again for the most overall dividends and it's clearly because of his ability to win Media dividends considering he picked up 86% of the vote for most expected media dividends too.
And if you think that's domination, wait until you see the results of the performance dividend questions. Lionel Messi picked up 130 of the votes when traders were asked to predict the player who would win the most total dividends. This doesn't sound so shocking, but it's interesting that the majority of these voters haven't put their money where their mouth is considering the Argentine is currently trading at a lower price than he was 6 months ago. Neymar came (some way behind) in second but of course the accuracy of this will depend heavily on the outcome of his move away from PSG. Raheem Sterling in third is an interesting one, Given his goal scoring record of late, a strong city team who may finally get somewhere in Europe and the introduction of performance dividends into International European Qualifiers, he may be in with a shout but you'd imagine it'll take some doing!
Moving onto top predicted defender this was almost a clean sweep too with Kimmich taking over 100 votes with many banking on him reproducing last seasons performances and not being featuring in midfield often enough for Opta to change his position. Trent Alexander Arnold came in second with around half the number of votes of Kimmich with the new matrix seeming suiting him many are hoping he can produce a much higher return than last year.
In Midfield Kevin De Bruyne came out on top. Although he picked up absolutely no performance dividends last season he's started the season incredibly well with a star (dividend) performance against Spurs in their 2-2 in game week 2 and the new matrix seems to work very much in his favour. If he can stay fit he could definitely do some serious damage and it's clear the general consensus has changed with his price up 50% in the last week! Kai Havertz claimed the second spot and after last season this isn't too surprising. A more surprising name on the list is Alejandro Gomez although those who hold him probably won't be too surprised at all with his impressive form last year helping Atalanta to that Champions League qualification spot in Serie A. An average of 124 ppg and three scores over 200 last year has been enough to push his price up to £1.50 before the Italian's even kick off.
The forward predictions look very similar to that of the "total" predictions with Lionel Messi being the most voted by a landslide and very little variation in answers as only 11 different forwards were suggested compared to 36 in the Midfielder category and 20 in the defenders category. You can see the top tens from each question below.
The question on best value In Play Dividend striker got some very mixed responses and a total of 74 players were quoted. you can see all those who got two or more votes below. Jamie Vardy is top of the list and is a real IPD favourite. His price tends to fluctuate a decent amount between his goals and allows a lot of room to trade in and out of him nicely.
Now, Obviously the likes of Messi will score a lot of goals but not too sure how much value is in him if you're just trying to flip them in 30 days. There's some good cheap punts on that list to be fair though, and we've seen a lot of them increase hugely over the last few weeks and months. I'd definitely recommend having a scout into some of these if you haven't already.
These next few questions were added in to try and gauge sentiment on different players with similarities in some characteristics but who are ultimately very different. The first "would you rather" saw Raheem Sterling win hands down against Harry Kane. despite Kane being the most likely to be England's star man, captain and goalscorer and also being cheaper than Sterling, there's something about him traders seem to dislike. Kane comes out on top marginally in terms of dividends last season but traders feel Sterling has more to come and there's no doubt his improvements on the pitch have led to more media coverage already which may be what traders are considering when choosing Raheem.
Paul Pogba vs Neymar was a closer contest but Paul came out on top. This is an interesting one because the questionnaire ran for around two weeks and I think the time that you answered this question would definitely have impacted your answer as both players have gone through phases recently that have made them potentially more or less favourable. They were certainly the dividend hoarders over the summer, picking up 84p and 81p in returns respectively, however both have also declined in price over the summer as the ceiling of the Index seems to have held strong , at least for now, and more money was transferred into cheaper holds.
Despite being very similarly priced, Marcus Rashford was pretty well preferred over Greenwood. Thank god. I spoke about this a fair bit in my article on young player prices but the fact is Rashford is currently doing everything Greenwood could ever hope to do in the future, even more so now Lukaku is gone so this result isn't too surprising I don't think.
Finally, Joshua Kimmich was preferred to Van Dijk in the battle of the best defenders. Kimmich's huge season last year saw him return more performance dividends than Neymar with his 29p and people clearly couldn't overlook that. However, Van Dijk does also have a media pull resulting in 34p of media dividends to accompany his 16p in performance dividends since the start of last season and the fact he's the odds on favourite for the ballon d'or definitely earned him a few more votes.
The ratings given to Football Index customer service, website and competitions can be seen below. Averages of 3.22, 3.06 and 3.27 were received respectively. These have all fallen compared to last years 3.49, 3.78 and 4.05.
Obviously this could be due to a range of things, one of which is that we as a customer base have become more demanding and less forgiving as the company gets older. Customer service have a lot more to deal with now with over 420,000 signed up users on the platform, people continue to want more from the website such as statistics, and while it's meant to be in the pipeline , nothing concrete has been rolled out and we've had a fair few tech issues with dividend payments etc. The competitions offered are still great in my opinion but I guess they're now harder to win with more people taking part. Overall though, not bad rating to receive really!
Finally, I asked what sites and materials were used on the side of Football Index's website to support your knowledge and trading. Four great products are mentioned below and of course the FIG comes out on top with the huge amount of quality and content he produces. I would definitely recommend using the other sites too and of course you're all using Football Analysis right now to read this article and It'd be great if you decided to keep checking out our content in the future!
Well, that's it! Thanks again for all those who took part in the questionnaire and I hope this was an interesting read for you! If you have any thoughts or questions on any parts of the article feel free to tweet us and any support from likes, favourites and retweets is hugely appreciated! Onwards and Upwards!!
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