No Football? No Problem!

Like many of the things we took for granted just a few weeks ago, football has been taken away from us to help the fight against the global pandemic. Atletico's victory at Anfield seems decades in the past but was just 24 days ago, but while the rest of the footballing world is relying on reruns and nostalgia to keep their customers and content viewers interested, Football Index continues to run in real-time and it's picked up the pace over the last fortnight.

As football began to get cancelled, Football Index saw some pull back, possibly the biggest pull back many traders have ever seen. 40% spreads were implemented and successfully stopped a run on players but the next task was to incentivise buying. 

On the 10th of March, Football Index doubled dividends temporarily at a time where things were looking bleak and simultaneously announced an 8.25% trading bonus (which is still running until 23rd April and can be found here). I have to admit, although I thought it was a great offer, I was unsure how well people would take to it since spreads essentially meant you could only market sell but it's clear now my scepticism was misplaced. Once the market turned and the ball was rolling there was no stopping it!

Many traders have done exceptionally well this month as money shifted into favourable media holds. Some of the biggest risers since 9 March 2020 can be seen below. 

Football Index March Risers

When you look at the yields on offer it was no surprise to see such influxes of cash into those expected to win media, even at £12, Sancho had the potential to return 0.8% in a single day, and as you can see below he racked up way more than that, despite not winning a dividend until day 10 of the promotion! 

This data covers the period from when football stopped until the end of double dividends (13/03 - 03/04) and proves just  how quickly media dividend wins can rack up.

Football Index March media leaderboard

These returns have been amazing but unfortunately, as of today (04/04/20) they are a thing of the past. Double dividends are gone but we haven't completely reverted to the old system. That's because until April 30 (unless extended after review in the week commencing April 23) Football Index is paying out FIVE places of media, with 4th and 5th both earning 1p returns per day. This means average points won matters more than ever and some players could genuinely win dividends almost daily with this lower threshold. 

Over the period analysed above, an average media score of 276 has been enough to make fifth place on the media rankings, 101 less than that needed to take 3rd place, whilst 700 was the mean media winner's score.  

On some days scores as low as 100 were enough to take 5th spot! Although it must be noted that media output has increased slightly since the start of the period, probably as journalists get accustomed to working from home etc.

Football Index Media points to win dividends

Looking forward then, it's worth taking a stab at who'll win all these dividends. Those in the leaderboard above are of course a great starting point, but there are a few other metrics that could be useful. 

Pence per 100 Points helps determine if a player's dividends won equates to the number of stories they've had written about them.  Some players have been luckier than others as you can see below. I also included the top-scoring players that didn't return anything. 

Of course, as ever, historical returns doesn't mean future returns but looking at some of these players it's obvious which ones are likely to continue to get media coverage, namely those who have transfer links.

Football Index  pence per 100 points

It's also interesting to see who would have potentially picked up places had 5 places been in place since the 13th March.  This gives a good indication as to who is likely to keep quietly picking up those penny places at the very least.

% of days above threshold

It's also worth considering who a player plays for or who they're linked with if you're looking for dividend winners. As usual Manchester United continue to be the focal point.

Football Index March media team

Finally, when contemplating whether a player's media will continue in the coming days or weeks it can be helpful to look at a rolling average of their  daily media points average. Now obviously I can't produce a graph big enough to include all players or even dividend winners in but even just looking at the four players with the most media over the period tells different stories for each player. Although of course, this is only a guide, a player can come back into favour with the media very quickly when circumstances change or if they're simply the flavour of the month again which many of these big names tend to be often.

five day trailing average media score

So there's the review of double dividends and a look at what's to come. Let's hope for a profitable April, stay safe folks and as always, onwards and upwards!

All data in this article was taken from Football Index Edge or compiled using their downloadable data section. You can get a 14 day free trial to check it out yourself here!

If you're new to Football Index and want to continue to learn the ropes, check out my free guide here!

Got some thoughts on this article? Why not tweet them to us at @footballindexLM or @Footballana

Leave a Comment: